Bayes Rule

In my pocket there are two coins. Coin 1 is unbiased, so the likelihood P r(h = 1|c = 1) of getting heads is 0.5 and the likelihood P r(h = 0|c = 1) of getting tails is also 0.5. Coin 2 is biased, so the likelihood P r(h = 1|c = 2) of getting heads is 0.8 and the likelihood P r(h = 0|c = 2) of getting tails is 0.2. I reach into my pocket and draw one of the coins at random. There is an equal prior probability I might have picked either coin. I flip the coin and observe a head. Use Bayes’ rule to compute the posterior probability that I chose coin 2.

Jeg sidder og laver noget statistik, også støder jeg på denne opgave, nogle der kan fortælle mig / vise mig hvad jeg skal gøre?