Matematik
Bayes Theorem - konkret opgave.
Sidder og kæmper lidt med denne opgave. Mit største problem er et jeg ikke kan finde ud af at rive begivenhederne ordentligt ud og stille dem op, hjælp tak?
Facitlisten siger=0.444
A stock analyst examined the prospects of the shares of a large number of corporations. When the performance of these stocks was investigated one year later. It turned out that 25% performed much better than the market average, 25% worse and the remaining 50% about the same as average.
40% of the stocks that turned out to do much better than the market were rated good buys - 20% of those that did as well as the market and 10% of those that did worse. What is the probability that a stock rated a "good buy" the analyst performed much better than the average?
Svar #1
24. november 2010 af altera (Slettet)
A1 "Is rated "Good buy" P(A1) = 0.20+0.40+.10 = 0.70
A2 " Is not rated "Good Buy" P(A2) = 1-0.70 = 0.30
B1 "Turn out to be much better than market" P(B1) = 0.25
B2 "Turn out not to be much better than market" P(B2) = 1-P(A) = 0.75
P(B1|A1) = 0.40 P(B2|A1) = 0.30
P(B1|A2) = 0.60 P(B2|A2) = 0.70
Her er mit forsøg.
Det giver dog ikke det rigtige resultat når jeg smider det ind i "bayes alternative statement"
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